Do you think humans are helping cause Climate change?

[SvennoJ]

thismeintiel said:

Rath said:

thismeintiel said:

Lol, I'll see you in 8 years, when we are still using oil like today, and yet mysteriously still have more.

That's only oil sands, there's a lot of conventional oil out there still too. I'm not saying we're going to run out straight away - just that we're going to start having less than before. With the current rate of oil discovery compared to the current rate of oil consumption it simply isn't sustainable forever. Peak oil doesn't mean all oil is going to stop, it just means it will slowly wind down.

The only problem is a lot of this info comes from "proven" oil reserves, which isn't just oil reserves that are obtainable technologically (which it should be), it also takes into account politics.  Then there's the fact that the chart you posted is info from 2002.  A lot can change in 10 years.  Of course, they're also very pessimistic.  If you look at at the previous years, you'll see how greatly it fluctuates.  Some years there is barely any new oil discovered, while others there is a lot of newly discovered oil.  With new technology, one can never truly know how much oil we will discover in the future. 

Then you also have the topic of unconventional reserves, which are ones we know about, but would take longer to either obtain or refine.  With newer technology, however, these will become easier and cheaper to obtain and process.  Here's a chart to compare both proven and unproven/unconventional numbers.  Numbers are from 2002, as well, and are in billions of barrels.

Source

This is updated upto 2011

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

Chief Economist of the IEA, said this in a frank interview in April 2011:

We think that the crude oil production has already peaked in 2006, but we expect oil to come from the natural gas liquids, the type of liquid we have through the production of gas, and also a bit from the oil sands. But in any case it will be very challenging to see an increase in the production to meet the growth in the demand, and as a result of that, one of the major conclusions we have from our recent work in the energy outlook is that the age of cheap oil is over.

Decline rates

Perhaps an even more more significant question than 'when will oil peak?' may be: What will be the future rate of decline of oil production? Some form of co-ordinated adaptation might be possible if the annual drop in available oil was no more severe than 1-2% a year. Whereas 10% or more would soon implode the global economy. The IEA predicts a long plateau and a very modest global decline rate. Most independent models project decline rates between 2-4%.

Natural gas peak

The effects of natural gas peak are relatively localized. This is due to the enormous economic and energetic expense of liquefying and transporting natural gas as a compressed liquid. Both European and North American natural gas production have likely already peaked, so these regions are facing the extra severity of a dual energy crisis.