Will PS3 top 100 million?

[Doktor85]

The market for PS3 360 and Wii will be 230mln when the last console is being produced. I sure PS3 and 360 will be bigger than Wii. The PS3 will win over 360 with 60% vs 40%. Last generation DC PS2 Xbox and NGC was 180mln. These consoles are all the same in a way (same controller style). If the Wii didn't exist the market for this generation will be like 200mln. However the Wii exists and will extend the market with 30mln at max.
If all gamers of the last generation stick with the controller intead of the Wii mote. 360 and Ps3 will have a market of 200mln. That would make PS3 120mln and 360 80mln. However Nintendo has a fanbase of 20mln at max from last generation. And not every gamer sticks with the controller but choose for a Wii mote. The question is how big is this group? How big is the market for party, rail shooters, point 'n click and platform games? Because those genres represent what the Wii is. I can also see that RPG's will be popular on Wii. But if you grab all those genres together, how much gamers could nintendo grab for last generation? That might be 50mln. I think the most popular genres are sports, action and shooters. Those gamers will stick with a PS3 or 360.
The market for PS3 and 360 together will be 200-20=180
180-50=130mln PS3 will get 60% = 78mln 360 gets 40% = 52mln.
The Wii will be the winner with 100mln.
So NO. PS3 will never get to 100mln.
Microsoft and Sony will learn form this generation that they need to focus more on casuals with Easy to Play games. Motion controls are the best way to do that. I excpect a PSeye that senses motion for PS4.