| Rath said: "@Rath, Mario, Mario, Mario, Zelda. =) 25 mln. GC and 120 mln. PS2. End of story." Are you trying to deny that Mario and Zelda are huge series? If so then you sir, are not worth arguing with. The PS2 won because it had far more series than are currently announced for the PS3 as well as a smarter price point and more early popularity. PS2 had as exclusives- Final Fantasy GTA MGS GT GoW Devil May Cry Guitar Hero Ratchet and Clank (I forgot this one off the PS3 list) Dragon Quest Kingdom Hearts Soul Calibur I can probably go on but I think you got the idea, many of these have now either switched platform entirely (ie. DQ) are as yet unannounced (ie. KH) or are multiplatform (ie. GTA) |
They may be multiplat, but they are still coming to the ps3. Imo, games like GTA will help both the 360 and ps3 against the Wii, and the exclusives like MGS4 will help the ps3 over the 360.
If 80% of the ps1's games had been multiplat, would it have dominated the N64? No.
I personally think that the ps3 will end up around 70-80 mil. at the end of its life. The Wii will probably have excelled well passed ps2 numbers by that point (probably close to 130 mil.), and the 360 will trail behind them both at around 35-45 mil.
I think that many casuals will jump on the Wii bandwagon, but I also believe that the casual demographic on the whole will be split. Some will go for controls, others for shiny visuals. Also, it seems that the ps3/360 are still getting quite a good bit of developer support compared to the Wii, something that the N64, GC, and Xbox did not have. The Wii will not have as dominant a game library as the ps2 had, as franchises like Soul Calibur will still be hitting the ps3/360 while only spin-offs will be hitting the Wii. The Wii will have the best line-up in the end (Zelda, Mario, No More Heroes, etc.) but it won't be as weighted as the ps1/2's.
In the end, I see the Wii getting most of the casual support, thus selling the most by far out of the three. However, a good bit of the casuals will still go for the ps3/360 because of graphics, GTA, etc., and out of those two, I think that the ps3 will gnab the larger portion. I think that exclusives from Sony's in-house development teams (Uncharted, inFamous, Resistance 2, Team Ico's next game), as well as those from major 3rd parties (MGS4, FFXIII, Tekken 6), combined with things like Blu-Ray playback, free online, hardware reliability, and most importantly "PlayStation" familiarity will propel the ps3 well passed the 360.
Overall, I think that the market will grow quite a bit over the coming years, so that even the console in third place will end up almost doubling the total sales of the GC/Xbox.
