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Carl2291 said:
Depends on Holiday 2012 sales.

If sales aren't as much as MS are expecting post-cut, I'd say it could be shown as early as CES 2013. If sales are alright through the Holidays and early 2013, then E3 2013 would be my best guess, ready for a Holiday 2013 release.

If sales are low, they won't announce a new console, it'll kill sales. 

There's a computer company that existed in the 1980's that made the mistake of announcing their next computer well before they were expecting to release it.  The announcement killed sales, because no one wanted the older computer when the newer one was so much better.  The company literally ran out of money during the development of the computer model everyone was holding off for, and it went out of business.

This is why companies are so cagey about what they're up to.  Sure, they don't want to tip off their competition, but they also don't want consumers to decide not to buy not rather than wait for the next generation.  Ideally, everyone would like to do a stealth release like Microsoft did with the Xbox 360 S, a total suprirse to everyone.

The Wii U was announced way too early, imho.  Granted sales were dropping, but I believe they got worse after Nintendo's announcement of the Wii U.