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Microsoft is saying this year is XBox 360 all the time, and a big year, and don't expect any announcements.  This does NOT mean that the next Microsoft console won't come out next year, or the could do announcements for it next year also, with no talk this year because they don't want to hurt sales.

But if not this year, when will the announcement be?

I would say that Microsoft could announce at next year's CES, and then have a release at the end of the year, and make next year the year of the next Microsoft console.  However, I am not going to bet this is so and am curious to see what others have to say.