I agree with Super Chunk though I am not as certain as I was a few months back that Nextbox will launch winter 2012. However I have interesting evidence that suggests it still might. Including my EBGames manager saying they were given a heads up that boxes of promotional material from Microsoft will arrive and are not allowed to be opened till the day of E3' Microsoft conference. I asked if it was possible that it was Halo4 and he said that the last time they received such a large amount of promotional material it was the Slims launch. He said considering the material coincides with E3 he was certain some kind of hardware is going to be unveiled.
You also have Sony making outlandish statements they are on track to beat Microsoft to the market. However Sony has barely any studios working on PS4. Most of Sony's internal studios are hard at work on PS3 games.
Microsoft and Sony both stated that their consoles will not be released any later then one year after the competition. Now some say "Well Nintendo isn't a competitor" if you say that you need to go back to school or put a helmet on. Because Nintendo is most definitely a competitor and Sony and Microsoft are not ill educated him rods they are aware Nintendo poses a threat. Neither competitor will launch any later then winter 2013.
Another factor. I believe it was Epic who just recently said with or without Microsoft and Sony showing their new hardware Epic is going to show their next generation games for that hardware. Now I assume Epic is working with Microsoft. Neither Sony nor Microsoft will allow a third party to show software for their console and unveil games and features before Microsoft or Sony unveil. Also since Epic has stated it is working knowledge next generation software some of which could launch in 2013, the hardware is going to have to be announced at E3 in one way or another. CryTek has also been hinting it will be showing off its new engine in a next generation game. Simply put developers are already saying next generation content will be at E3 with or without Microsoft and Sony. Which would make it suicide for either company not to at least mention the hardware.
Then we have the closed meeting. These meetings are often leaked and rarely occur in a massive venue with tons of developers till launch year or the year prior. Your not going to have a closed meet at a major venue three years before the hardware comes. Even two years is pushing it, Nintendo did but that was with WiiU for Wii a big event like that didn't occur till launch year at least from what we have heard. At TGS when Nintendo showed the Wiimote developers were thrown off.
Their are so many factors including economic ones etc..etc.. that make a 2012 release of NextBox very smart. Oh I forgot the biggest part Nintendo and Microsoft both began their next generation development in 2008. Microsoft did officially while Nintendo claimed their employees were working on Wii titles that apparently have been bumped like Pikmin 3. While Sony didn't publicly begin development till last year late. In fact most studios have leaked having NextBox kits but few have claimed to have Sony kits. So don't expect Sony to launch this winter. But Sony will show something I am positive and Microsoft if they don't show anything they will announce it.
All the public denials mean squat. Their are far less reasons to launch in 2013. A 2014 launch would be DOA!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
