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Personally, I don't think it is realistic to expect more than a 25% improvement year-over-year in sales from any not supply constrained console that has been released in all regions; if the PS3 improved its sales by 25% every year it would finally hit 100 Million units in 2013.

If you assume this pattern of growth for the PS3 (which is a lot like most non-dominant console lifecycles):

  • 2008: 10% improvement over 2007
  • 2009: 10% improvement over 2008
  • 2010: 10% reduction from 2009
  • 2011: 25% reduction from 2010
  • 2012: 75% reduction from 2011

The PS3 will break 40 Million units by 2013.