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If nothing else, I'm convinced basic online play will remain free.

SCE has already demonstrated, to limited degree, that PSN users are willing to pay for more, assuming they see the value in the additional services. Currently, PSN + is a service that gives extra for the subscription in the form of early access, discounts and additional features, most pertaining to cloud sync and automated functions. They are well worth the cost, assuming the PSN user frequently buys content and is generally a moderate to heavy user of the PS3.

That said, it is possible for SCE to pare down the feature set of free PSN to the point where anyone who is not a light user will see the benefit of a subscription.