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crissindahouse said:

so you think the drop would have stopped exactly at the point where the iraq war started without that war? i don't say he would have dropped to 30% or so but exactly at that point? i think he could have lost 5% more to get maybe below the 50% (not exactly sure where the graph is there with all those dots^^). but few percent here or there, two years after that he was still at 51% and that's all i was talking about, not where he was in 2008 or so.

Within ~3-5 percentage points.

9-11 greatly imrpoved his popularity... which fell off as people got less freaked out.  However SOME bump should remain.

If you'll note, right before Iraq his poll numbers are slightly above where they were before 9/11.

At that point in his presidency he hadn't really done anything stupid to cost him popularity.

It's all polling 101.