Afghan Cycle: How it works

[Kasz216]

Mr Khan said:

KungKras said:

Mr Khan said:

KungKras said:
Taliban is being left in power? O_o

We're all thinking ahead. The only viable road to peace will be Taliban participation in a new regime, which they may attain majority control over since they largely represent the Pashto ethnic group, which holds a very narrow ethnic plurality in Afghanistan.

While the Taliban are a bad group of people, America does not necessarily find their existence intolerable, merely their tendency to give safe harbor to terrorists. If they were obliged to follow the current constitution, a restoration of some form of Taliban control would be an acceptable outcome.

So basically, you want them to accept a democratic constitution, and accept the possibility that they might win power democratically?

A tweak to the constitution could fix it. If Afghanistan became a parliamentary system, they would need a coalition government to survive, because even if they went strictly down to tribal associations, democratically no one tribe constitutes a majority or a near-majority. Pashto is the largest, but not by much

But at the end of the day America's commitment in Afghanistan can't be limitless, and so long as guarantees are in place that Afghanistan won't become a giant Islamic terrorist training ground and hideout again, i think we would accept the Taliban otherwise, even if we didn't like the fact that they're in control. Similar to how the West "tolerated' Qaddafi after Libya ditched its WMD program (until it became clear that it would be easy to get rid of him altogether in 2011).

Would they agree to terms that though?   I mean, basically their view is, that once the US leaves, they take back power quickly.  Even if they made a deal I'd think they'd betray it shortly after a US pullout.

It really feels to me like the only options in afghanistan are catastrophic failure, and a catastrophic failure that was negotiated and allows for the saving of face of the US.