Will the 360 lose to PS3 and Wii because of its lineup?

[MikeB]

I think the 360 will loose a lot of market share this year, IMO the main reasons why the 360 did so well its first two years are:

1) Headstart, lack of high def competition for its first year on the market (1 year and 5 month headstart for Europe and most of the world).
2) XBox's early and total demise, this pushed most XBox fans to upgrade pretty fast. However there are surely 6 million XBox users in the US who still haven't upgraded despite a total lack of support for their platform for over two years.
3) Cheaper entry price than the PS3.
4) A lot of media misinformation and FUD geared towards the PS3 in the US and an unbelievable amount of hype and praise for the 360, IMO an unreliable, noisy and far less powerful solution for the long run.

The 360 is a non factor for Japan and there are many PS3 exclusives and 360/PS3 muliti-platform games coming up which are of interest to Japanese games. Simultaneously released multi-platform games sell much better for the PS3, much more so than you would expect considering just installbase size.

In Europe, the 360 doesn't stand a chance against the PS3. Even with mainly experimental new franchices released by Sony so far, the PS3 has overtaken the 360's total installbase in many of Europe's main and smaller markets already. This despite a 1 year and 5 months headstart for the platform.

For the US, there are many FPS fans there, IMO Killzone 2 and Resistance 2 will make the PS3 the primary console for hardcore FPS fans. In addition to this the high profile PS3 exclusives I think will push the PS3 to significantly outsell the 360 for Chirstmas 2008 in this country.