(Analyses) Vita, 3DS, WiiU - Too Early to tell

[theprof00]

HappySqurriel said:

theprof00 said:

HappySqurriel said:
For the Wii U I agree 100% that it is too early to say how it will perform ... Almost everything people "know" is unsupported rumours.

With the PS-Vita I think a picture is starting to emerge that is not looking too good; and, without a dramatic move by Sony, could lead to long term trouble. While you can argue that the same could be said of the PS3, if Sony lost over half their userbase in the handheld market (like they did in the console market with the PS3) no one will be calling it successful ... There is still time to turn this around, but everyone will be looking for Sony to do something pretty drastic at E3; and if that doesn't happen, I have doubts about the long term viability of the platform.

With the 3DS, while it is too early to claim that it will replicate the success of the DS, it is fair to say that it is on track to being a highly successful platform. A year old and over 16 million systems sold, even if it only averages 3/4 per year for the next 7 years it will break 100 million units sold

The picture is the Vita not having enough games, the "drastic move" is releasing games. Please don't exaggerate the details, otherwise when some big games are named, and sales pick up, people are still going to say it's not enough, because of this kind of rhetoric.

Games will help but at the current price they will fail to provide much momentium for the PS-Vita ...

Essentially, most people expect to pay between $150 and $200 for a handheld gaming system with a game based on what they have paid for previous handheld systems. With inflation most people are probably willing to pay a little more but after they start having to pay $225 or $250 for a system and a game you're (probably) going to start to see a lot of resistance. When you have a system in the $300+ range for a system, game and memory card you're dealing with a very small portion of the market who are interested. 

While the price will eventually come down, I don't think Sony has the luxury of waiting it out. Unlike the PS3 the PS-Vita doesn't have similar platforms that already have substantial third party support with games that have such high development costs publishers are desperate to port the games to as many systems as possible to manage risk. Publishers will need the PS-Vita to stand on its own, and if they start projecting under 6 to 8 million units sold in its first year expect to see them start delaying and spacing out games in the second year; and if the sales continue to struggle to see fewer and fewer games planned for the third year and beyond.

There is still lots of time for Sony to turn things around, but if we don't see a price cut at E3 I would expect to see third party publishers publicly pressure Sony to drop the price.

OK, we're on the same page at least. I agree that games would help, but are likely not enough to be competitive enough.It can do well without a drop until, say, gamescom, or even simply just september as part of a ps3 price drop tie-in perhaps. But the problem is that "well" is likely going to be less than the psp sold.

Just, the thing is, a price drop, even one to 179$ (although I'm predicting 199$) is not what I would specifically call "drastic".  Furthermore, what is to stop Nintendo from simply dropping the price again, and repeating the cycle? Sure the price is a barrier, but competition is also a barrier in itself. Right now, I can buy a new 3ds on ebay for 130. Why? Because last week walmarts and other stores were selling them for around 119$.

This price drop thing is not a war that Sony wants to get into. Believe it.