After Peter Hopkirk's The Great Game, which only made me wonder even more, why such a wonderful episode of the world's hsitory is often overlooked and undervalued, as it could explain a whole lot more than merely Europe-centric history of XIX century, and even more - it could very well explain as well a hundreed years after then 1907 Convention... so I thought of this Afghan wars summary that, who knows, might predict the consequences of current events, provided the reasons behind them are similar with a certain adjustement for a different epoch and geopolitical situation.
So how Afghan Cycle works:
1. As an easiest and most straightforward way to get rid of your opponent's influence you organize a seemingly effortless military operation to overthrow an opponent's puppet or whatever Afghan regime you consider not comfortable enough for you.
2. First victorious achievements so loud and solid that the war seems settled.
3. Time has passed, you're so deeply rooted into Afghan soil that's almost impossible to neglect your limitless control over the region. The catastrophe that is creeping on you is unseen nor for average man, nor for eggheaded political analysts whose job is to foresee such things. In the meanwhile an uprising is growing, remaining enemy forces are lurking near your military bases fighting partisan tactics.
4. Catastrophe, nation in despair or in apathy at the very least, many years after it incarnates into smth like Buttler's Remnants of an Army.
5. As the last attempt to fix the situation every effort is made to put your enemy in it's former place, what as you rightfully consider is better than chaos which may lead to unpredictable results. Now the one you've overthrown isn't so uncomfortable anymore as it seemed before.
How it was:
1. 1st Anglo-Afghan War: Dost Mohammad > Dost Mohammad
Classic example. Superhuman efforts have been made in order to get rid of Dost Mohammad, whom was retired by Brits and send to India with full pension benefits. In two years, which the British Army spend in celebratio of a 'victory', Dost Mohammad was put back to his place by the very same Brits.
2. 2nd Anglo-Afghan War: Sher Ali > Abdur Rahman
First Jihad in Afghanistan. Brits sucсessfully overthrow Sher Ali, but eventually considered the best figure to replace him on it's emir's position is his nephew, Abdur Rahman, who was furiously opposed at first for the reason he was a Kaufman's puppet.
3. 3rd Anglo-Afghan War: Amanullakh Khan > Amanullakh Khan
Failed British plan to overthrow Amanullakh Khan, who came into power on the nationalistic wave of Young Afghans party. The most talantless effort by Brits, which only made an equally anti-British and anti-Russian national leader a Soviet ally.
4. 1st Soviet-Afghan War: Zahir Shah, Daoud, Taraki, Amin > Rabbani, Ahmad Shah Massoud
The most freshest example. How come Soviets managed to put themselves into the situation, which was proven numerous times to be fatale by the British, not without a help of whom? the very same Russian-Soviets. And endless line of political instability, resulted in infamous Storm-333 specop and Amin death. The same scenario led to the rise in power for one of the pro-American (for the lack of Brits) Taliban founders Rabbani and his rival, yet Soviet enemy, Ahmad Shah Massoud, the Lion of Panjshir.
5. 1st Americano-Afghan War: Taliban > Taliban?
And here we go, current war. Ahmad Shah Massoud was killed by Taliban couple days prior to Ground Zero and when 'war on terror' started. Zahir Shak was back from immigration, but the fate was on the Karzai's side. Given recent peace talks between coalition and Taliban currently suspended though, it's no-brainer that one of the Taliban leaders will take place of Karzai before ISAF withdrawal.
Thoughts?
