When I think of forever, I think of the foreseeable future, as in 20 or 30 years from now. That being said, based on their past experiences, I think Nintendo will outlive Sony and Microsoft. Nintendo has survived in good times and bad times and unlike Sega who did a piss poor job of properly managing their hardware, Nintendo is very good at that. Nintendo's emphasis on profiting from hardware and maintaining a strong first party presence works for them because it reinforces the importance of a closed system and a dedicated game system, something that the consumers, even those who buy iPads will understand. Nintendo has also created a culture around themselves and even with their new emphasis over the years on casual games, that culture has not disappeared and culture is another thing that will help keep them alive. Now in what shape or form Nintendo's future game systems will take is unpredictable.
With Microsoft, I think it's 50/50 for them. I think at some point in the future, they'll either sell the Xbox brand to another company and focus on game software, or they'll just dump Xbox altogether and again focus only on game software. Microsoft is not a hardware company and hardware is not what they do best. I'm basing this on the fact that Steve Ballmer will still be the head of the company when this happens. If they get somebody else, it all may change.
With Sony, just like Microsoft, I think it's 50/50. If PS4 ends up like PS3, I think they'll be out of the dedicated game market in 10 years. If PS4 succeeds, I think PlayStation game systems will be around, but I think future PlayStation game systems will be less like the first few PlayStations and more like devices that focus on multimedia first since it would most likely serve Sony's interest best. They're in the process of trying to simplify things at the company and they probably want to start eliminating products meaning that instead creating tablets and PlayStation systems or Blu Ray players and PlayStation systems, they'll most likely end up with more intergraded hardware, although probably not quite as simple as what Apple has.
It's funny how the dynamics of the industry has changed over the years. 10 years ago, everyone was saying Nintendo was going to end up like Sega and the market would belong exclusively to Microsoft and Sony. Nowadays, many are predicting that Sony will leave the hardware business, and Apple could be the next newcomer. I wonder people will be saying in 10 years?
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