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My money would be on Nintendo to be around the longest.

Gaming could def survive in a 2 console system, although I think if one left another would try to enter. I could see Google entering, through the puchase of all rights and manufacturing capabilities of the company who left.

Now that I think about it I think there will prob always be some form of console. I say that as the purchase of a console creates a form of loyalty through the investment. No console you could switch between game companies without consideration.