How well will FFXIII do in Japan?

[Sullla]

I think it really depends on the size of the install base when the game releases. Some comparisons:

FF7 sold 2.03m copies week 1 on an install base of 5.2m (LTD sales 3.93m)
FF8 sold 2.52m copies week 1 on an install base of 14.2m (LTD sales 3.64m)
FF9 sold 2.03m copies week 1 on an install base of 16.7m (LTD sales 2.80m)

FF10 sold 1.91m copies week 1 on an install base of 5.2m (LTD sales 3.02m)
FF12 sold 1.82m copies week 1 on an install base of 20.4m (LTD sales 2.42m)

One thing that jumps out is how ridiculously frontloaded all of these games were in sales. Everyone one did more than 50% of total sales in the first week (FF9 and FF12 both did almost 75% of total sales week 1!) Clearly, there is a dedicated audience of fans that buy these games instantly.

Secondly, both FF7 and FF10 had high attach rates, approaching 40% of the total system owners at the time of sale. This bodes well for the chances of Final Fantasy 13. Nevertheless, in all cases the Final Fantasy platform had over 5m consoles sold at time of launch, and both the Playstation and PS2 had already established clear market dominance at the time of release. How well Final Fantasy 13 does will be dictated in many ways by the overall success of the PS3.

Since we still don't know when this game is coming out, I can't possibly make any kind of sales prediction. If PS3 sales are below 5m when the game releases, however, it will be extraordinarily difficult to replicate the past success of the franchise simply for install base reasons.