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I have come to the conclusion that the main factors that drive success of games are the following:

  1. Quality (kind of obvious)
  2. Being part of a well known series (people who bought your previous game will likely buy the next game)
  3. Being developed by a well known studio (every day more people recognise the studios that created the games they loved)
  4. Having a large marketing budget
  5. Being in a popular genre

While there has been the occassional Nintendo game that has none of these (usually a very low budget game) the vast majority of the games Nintendo has seen success with have had 3 or more of these qualities going for it; and in many cases all 5. In contrast, the majority of third party games have none of these and the few games that people say "flopped" have 1 or 2 of these things going for them ...