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"60 million will come as a result of actually seeing more available stock in stores. It still will instantly sell out but will be replenished more frequently than before. Most people get discouraged after not being able to find the system for a while and stop looking. When they see it with less effort in search sales will explode."

Right. What a lot of nay-sayers tend to forget, or not realize, is that because the Wii is so supply constrained the only people who own one are those dedicated enough to gaming (or dedicated to gamer kids) to hunt one down and a few lucky souls who were in the right place at the right time. There's now a mountain of people who are interested in getting a Wii, but aren't about to kill themselves to find one. When Wii's start having a shelf life, these people will (slowly at first) rediscover them and pick them up (when it's financially convinient to them).

The effect is people will first be claiming the bubble is bursting because low and behold, Wiis can be found on store shelves. But then those casual, new-gamers, non-gamers, whatever you wanna call them will start buying it up in increasing number and sales will go up, up, up until they become spare again.

I'm not even going to get into the WiiFit effect here, but JL is right, you havn't seen anything yet.