These analysts rely heavily on statistics that have already played out in a business model's history. They rely on statistics of the current market as well. There is a formula to it. But as in most business, there is what you can control and what you cannot. Pachter's Wii predictions were way off because of something that he could not see, and most analysts wouldn't take into account, and that is the fact it was something completely different from any other video game system before it. There were no statistics about a motion-control-based game system ,the closest data available was from the Xavix. So they had to rely on Nintendo's Gamecube numbers. Anything else considered was a "flip-of-the-coin" type guess. So where numbers are the only thing that matters, Pachter is essentially correct: The PS3 will pass the Xbox 360.
Again, with the Wii U, there is no data for how a game system with a touch-screen controller (as well as motion control) will fare against the unseen competition. He could very well be wrong again in his assertion that the Wii U will "do a Dreamcast", but he could also be right. Those of us who love Nintendo have faith that the Wii U will do well, but as far as hard numbers, there is no way to tell how it will do just yet.
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