Well, ignoring sales curves and going by VG total numbers I see the following:
360 has been in 'Others' market for around 25 months (giving it 3x holidays as it launched around November 2005 right?)
PS3 has been in 'Others' market for around 10 months (giving it 1x holidays as it launched around March 2007 right?)
360 = 5.44 M
PS3 = 3.90 M
Now, ignorning timing (i.e. weekly sales and spikes) the evidence would be that PS3 has sold 72% (roughly) of current 360 LTD in 'Others' with approx 40% of time in market as 360 and with only 1 holiday season vs 3 for 360.
So yes, unless MS turn around sales for 360 in 'Others' PS3 will absolutely catch it - the question is when.
Now simply extrapolating forward from current average difference in 'Others' is useless as the consoles see holiday spikes, spikes for price changes, spikes for big games, etc.
If I had patience (actually time) I'd look at time series curves, then factor in major releases for both, etc. but I suspect that unless anything major happens PS3 will catch 360 by end of 2008 for sure (inclusive of holiday spike) but perhaps earlier if games such as MGS and GTA IV drive big spikes.
Of course 360 could lower price, GTA IV is on 360 as well, etc. so of course MS could prevent PS3 overtaking it in 'Others' this year but I think it will need to drive some serious effort behind it as the base data clearly shows that PS3 is in a position to catch 360 based on LTD sales and time to reach them so far vs 360.
Or did I miss something with my numbers?
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
