No, not even close. It comes down to what Nintendo does best, which is mass market appeal. When you go to buy a game system for your 8 year old, you arent going to buy the one thats seen as the grown ups system. Vita and 3DS will sell similar, yet lesser, ammounts as their predecesors because smart phones and tablets have stolen some of their market. No chance that Vita out sells 3DS, no chance it even out sells PSP.