PS Vita to be the number one selling console/handheld in the new gen

[Zlejedi]

RolStoppable said:

Gilgamesh said:

My argument is to say why can't the Vita beat the 3DS?

Everyone replies, "it can't vita won't beat Nintendo they make the best handhelds and everyone buys them!" Everyone bought the NES And SNES until Sony showed up then everyone bought PS1 and PS2's now it's back to the Wii, it's to random to say Nintendo will win for the sake of Nintendos track record for handhelds, the PSP  did great against the DS compared to any other handheld, we know it's doable 70 milion PSP's sold is impressive.

Of course it's silly to say that one company will win simply because it won before. What needs to be done is an analysis of what each company is doing. Most importantly, what games do they make and what can they expect from third parties.

When it comes to first party software, Nintendo wins hands down. Third parties have already released important games for the 3DS or will do so soon (like Kingdom Hearts in Japan next month). Monster Hunter is 3DS exclusive, this means Sony has zero guaranteed million sellers in Japan while the 3DS has already three released with more to follow.

Selling 70m Vitas won't be enough to beat the 3DS. It doesn't even look like the Vita will get to 70m anyway. It's tracking/will track below the PSP in all markets in the coming months while the 3DS will extend its 15m lead. Those aren't exactly numbers that will Sony help to garner more third party support and fewer big games being released will lead to lower hardware sales. It's basically impossible for the PSV to close the gap to the 3DS under these circumstances.

3rd parties will have the same reason to not support 3DS as they did with Wii - Nintendo itself.

Nintendo will take a huge part of market itself as they always do which means rest of companies will have to compete in crowded space against 3rd party behemoths like Resident or Monster Hunter.

Add to that barely existing digital market and easy porting from consoles to PSV and chances are western devs and smaller japanise companies will choose Vita instead of 3DS.

People think that Japan is the key to handheld success. It was in past gens because west didn't care about handhelds as they were inferior to consoles. Vita now opens possibilities of handheld which can fully accept solutions from home console market.

Also in DS vs PSP - DS had a huge advantage of battery life few times longer than PSP which people many time quoted as a reason to choose DS. That advantage is gone.