I really don't see online versions being massive this new generation. Last generation it was to early and by that I mean way to early. I suspect it'll be another generation before downloadable content actually catches up to physical and without a serious event I think physical media could even remain on the market for a third generation from the current one. Though a second generation from now physical media will be nearly defeated.
The problem will be the retailers and intelligent consumers. Say Sony wants to sell online games drastically cheaper then retail to cut out the middle man and make all the profits. The retailers will revolt even if the physical option is on their store shelves they will demand Sony keep the physical copies competitively priced.
So when will retailers disappear? Well retailers like GameStop and BestBuy will not disappear for awhile. They are very powerful. Even if big box retailers dissapear they will still have a difficult time taking out Amazon
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
