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well, gaming wise nintendo is already out of the competition, its still viewed as a child system.

its between xbox and PS.
if xbox continues down the kidnect path then sony wins.
if playstation doesn't get better online it has a problem.

if xbox announces 3 new IPs for next gen and confirms the used game block is fake, it will probably win no matter what sony throws at it.

honestly all MS has to do is make games and it will be fine.. sony is making games, and they are OK, but none of the stand out enough to be worth noticing.
Sony has a better online deal, but the UI and lag kills it for me and many others, some games are good but others its like wtf. PSN+ is amazing and hopefully MS will copy its model for next gen, free arcade game every week as long as i'm gold? yes please.

in the end, it will be does MS have the launch line up and no used game rumor, or will sony win because MS fails.