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It's too early to tell, still at this moment I would say Microsoft has the better chances to win.
-At this moment they are the only ones in an healthy financial position so they can afford, more than competitors, to sell hardware on loss.
-They can cater to both casual and core audiences, since they have both core games and kinect.
-They have the better chances to create an ecosystem with phones, tablet and PCs thanks to Windows8.
-Next-gen digital delivery and online services will most likely become even more important, and M$ has already the best online infrastructure, compared to competitors.