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I don't think the Vita will fail, but if it does, everyone will say it's because of the mobile phones. I sure hope that will not be the case, or otherwise we will get only touch screen games, and Mario like platformers do not work well on those.
We should not regress, we should progress. Choosing a less efficient input method for our games is not progress. Any temporary lapse of judgement will eventually ware off (pointer devices are slowly curing the craziness that console shooters still are). Thinking that virtual buttons are a good solution for any situation is such a temporary lapse of judgement.
Go gaming handhelds.