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I very highly doubt Vita will do any better then psp did in the west.

your crazy if you think vita has any chance of out selling Nintendo 3ds . . theres plenty of doubt going on in the gamespot forums , and they all point to the truth . no one wants to play call of duty modern warfare 3 or uncharted on a handheld if they can get a better version on A cheaper alternative(ps3) they will so do it just like psp before if this is all vita can offer then it's a safe bet that it will be like psp in the west and pick up steam in japan at a later time

 

 

and psp had third party support? no more like it got ports and more ports .  the nintendo ds had more third party support then psp just look at how many games came out for it vs  psp .   the strongest titles psp has is=gta and those were quickly ported to ps2 .   and driver 76   .   also starwars games and sports games . but ds had got goldeneye/ other 007 games vita only haD 1 007 TITLE IN ITS ENTIRE RUN ---FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE DS HAD 4 -GOLDENEYE rogue agent quantum of solace blood stone and goldeneye not to mention the sims series call of duty -again no one wanted the later so .. 

 

you can only imagine what it will do on vita-no different