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Khuutra on 12 February 2012
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Rainbird said:
HappySqurriel said:

While I agree with Silver-Tiger that Nintendo has the advantage, I disagree with his reasoning ...

When you have a market filled with (essentially) generic products the company that controls the market has the advantage. Having the largest userbase in the previous generation and launching before Nintendo and Microsoft helped Sony gain control of the market long before Nintendo or Microsoft could respond; and in this generation Nintendo will have the largest userbase in the previous generation and will be launching before either Sony or Microsoft.

The advantage of having won the previous generation is relative I would say though. Not that I disagree that Nintendo has an advantage in launching first, but the Wii being the best selling home console this generation is only an advantage if the Wii owners are prepared to "upgrade", and I'm not sure that many Wii owners want to upgrade.

This is purely speculation, but I don't think the Wii U will hold the same appeal as the Wii. The Wii got hyped on the premise of new ways to control games, but the Wii U is presenting something people already know. We know tablets and we know "old" controllers. Combined with the fact that Wii owners spend less time on their consoles than their PS360 counterparts (in the US at least), and I don't think many people feel like they will need to buy the Wii U, at least for a while.

Whether PS360 owners feel any different is of course important to know in this discussion, but assuming that all three will essentially put the same console out, I think PS360 owners are likely to choose something they already have a commitment to, in the form of achievements or trophies perhaps, or downloadable games.

I reject that reasoning from both of you; based on this generation and others, I have no reason to believe that there's such a thing as carrying over console loyalty for a large crowd. If there was, PS3 wouldn't have taken this long to really get going, and the 360 wouldn't have done as well as it did.

The Wii will not determine the success of the Wii U; the Wii U will determine the success of the Wii U.