I think it'll do alright. Like, I expect it to outsell PSP's first year (Which launched at $250 right? Higher price due to inflation too...), which can only be a success for the Vita. Like the PSP though I think the real challenge is where it goes from there, PSP soon stuttered once the DSlite hit and the software dried up for the PS3 launch - Sony needs to keep the Vita relevent for it's whole life.
The price is an obstacle but I think the PSP had a decent first year of sales at that price so clearly it's an obstacle Sony can over come. If it can't at least match the PSP then the price needs cutting but I think it should be okay - my memory is cloudy of back then though. The Vita definitely has a much stronger launch lineup then the PSP, albeit maybe the PSP had a GTA and Need for Speed by the end of the year.
I can't see it ever outselling the 3DS but that doesn't really matter all that much imo. I'm sure Sony would like too and stuff but in reality they just need to create a handheld that sells like the PSP but actually sells software too.
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