Crucial Points in the Console War..

[shams]

This Xmas is the critical point. The dust will settle in Jan/Feb 08, and we'll see what actually happened.

360 has to make serious inroads - or its dead I think.

The PS3 has to pick up significantly (sure it will), although by being a year behind and "future proof", Sony can always aim to ramp up for Xmas 08.

I can't see Nintendo slowing down at all - the Wii/DS will basically sell out worldwide (again), its just a question of what software titles sell. I think they are secure enough for now, its whether their competitors can match them that matters.

Its also a break Xmas for the PSP. With price cuts & new model, this has to be the Xmas the PSP makes a comeback - or you'll see retailers start dropping it next year.

...

A big factor you'll see is this: many next-gen developers (having spent years spending money on R&D/development) are going to be expecting BIG returns by Xmas 07 - to pay for development costs. A lot of this will be burdened by the publishers, who are paying out the cash at the moment.

I think you'll see many titles "flop" this Xmas (say 40% sales below expectation, maybe more), severely cutting into the forecast revenue for publishers. This in turn, will cause several publishers to cancel projects/sequels, and consolidate - less titles, more quality - for the next 2 years.

The titles that are exempt are the ones developed for a Xmas '08 year - but if a particular platform does badly, you may see publishers cut/move the project to another platform completely.

Its going to be REALLY interesting to see how games like Assassins Creed does. No one can fault the quality, or development that has gone into it - but can it sell enough to break even? (is this even the point of it, or is it more of a brand development title?).