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I think in North America, at best you're going to see a 2 million unit launch. Europe may add 1.5 - 2 million more. From there sales will decline, picking back up near the holiday selling season, but it won't peak beyond the launch numbers.

If the Vita doesn't pick up momentum by June 12th, it'll be lost in the news of the day, the iPhone 5. As much as people here don't see smartphones as competition, the fact is right now every product competes for consumer dollars. If Sony hasn't convinced people by June 12th to buy, the Vita is going to have a very quiet Summer.