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SamuelRSmith said: How the hell will a war improve the situation? That's too far in the wrong direction. The solution is very simple, Congress stops spending more than it takes in, and the Federal Reserve's monopoly grip is ended on the currency. How a war would help these, I have no idea. |
Well, it's rather self-explanatory and could be supported by multiple arguments, most of which are rather banal, like:
1) Big changes bring big wars;
2) Why the f**k they should limit oneself and not to use such wonderful political instrument as war?
3) A lot of the US authorities said it multiple times already.
4) Open your eyes and look around for god's sake, etc :D
But let's go in a little details as I see them, if you want.
Let's skip the preface with all whys and whats and get to the current situation. At the moment US financial authorities are forced to choose between two basic scenarios of ongoing crisis: deflationary and inflationary. I don't consider the former as a meaningful option they will choose willingly, since it's the shortest route to default with all expected and rather unpleasant consequences, so let's take a closer look at the latter one, which I believe will be realized in form of "hyperinflation therapy".
Its main goals are: a) drastic financial and economy improvement; b) consolidation of considerable size of national and world's assets in the hands of said authorities. Therefore the list of specific tasks to accomplish should look like this:
- Devaluation of national debt;
- Correction of money supply;
- Devaluation of pension and other social liabilities;
- Serious budget spendings cut;
- Devaluation of households credit liabilities;
- Decrease of real labour cost, rise in business profitability;
- Concentration of national property in hands of said authorities;
- Induction of world economic collapse;
- Acquisition of direct control over considerable size of world's assets.
A good deal of mentioned tasks could be completed by...
...The Long War and Energy Shock
Few truisms for the beginning. Energy resources, mainly oil and gas, are the base of modern world economy. Any serios disbalance of energy transit could provoke serious economic and social crisis, weaken industry and military strength of dozens of countries, lead to big military confilcts between ones and loss of soverignity by the others. In other words, energy market is a perfect instrument for aggression.
Beside the fact that the oil bring warmth to our homes and we make gas out of it to drive cars, it has couple of unique features most products don't:
- Its price is deterimined by anything but demand of real oil and supply of real oil on the commodities exchange, in other words it's higly speculation dependent resource.
- It's geopolitcal resource, because: a) not all have it; b) control over its transit could be more lucrative and important than actually owning it.
One of the working mechanism to make a hyperinflation is to increase oil prices. It could be done by governmental price regulation mechanisms, but will result in additional problems and disbalance in foreign trade. There're better options - good old miliary agression, organization of regional confilcts and subsidizing civil wars in oil producing and transit countries.
Unlike the US where the price increase will lead to hyperinflation, in the most developed and developing countries it will have depressing effect on the economy. It's understandable, since no EU, no China, no Japan aren't prepared for hyperinflation, they'll try to limit rise in prices by decreasing liquidity, which will be the first step to depression.
So realistically it's a potential WW3 scenario, which has been dubbed by the G.W. Bush administration as "The Long War", a new type of war where the US will use direct, though limited, military strength only against the few, mostly secondary, countries. Examples, South Sudan, Nigeria.
This is just one, though main, reason for war, there could be others as long as they fall in the grand scheme of things :D As of today half of US real income is colonial taxation so to speak. Loss of it will result not only in serious damage to the national and not so national elites, but direct hit to middle-american standard of life with (again) expected and rather unpleasant consequences.
In other words, today the US need to prove that: a) US is the safest place for your money, i.e. buy US Treasury bonds, USD is the only measure for them; b) US can guarantee it's stability, i.e. inspirate instability in the rest of the world. The chance for any other option died during Clinton administration, which was a point of no return, methinks.
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Whew, I'm off for a week or two again.
