First off, the gaming industry as a whole won't be shrinking; all signs point to its continued expansion.
If the question is whether the market for dedicated gaming platforms is shrinking, specifically game consoles and game handhelds, that's an entirely different situation. Lots of variables to consider here.
There's no question that games on iOS and Android will continue to gain marketshare, even if it's primarily within the expanded audience which will come to include anyone who owns a tablet or smartphone with any games installed on it.
Maybe the real question there is how reliable this new expanded audience will be when it comes to generating growth revenue through $.99 app purchases.
Going back to dedicated gaming platforms, I believe pricing may come a long way in determining how quickly each new system gains traction, second only to platform specific games within the first year of release. So these platform specific exclusives may well be the real console sellers more than ever before as general consumers continue to gain more options on which device/platform to game (web browser based, cloud based services, PC, iOS/Android, etc.).
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