I'm still on the fence either way.
1) I feel MS/Ballmer "sort of"claimed number one but his language was uncertain next to other statements - number 1 in US, etc all of which were clear. He said - unless I've missed other comments - "number one sales" without any clear qualification of those sales - were they sold to retail, sold to consumers, was he even talking units? sales could be sales revenue, units or whatever.
2) NPD has some unexpected - to say the least - numbers and currently is looks very tricky to consider how to balance NPD with VG and determine where certain gaps might exist.
3) unless I'm missing something there seems some confusion regarding the IGN numbers. I've seen people saying MS contacted IGN directly to correct statements but when I looked at IGN their statement said they'd changed numbers based on an MS press release which clarified the numbers. They helpfully didn't include a link to the press release.
So basically I'm going to wait and see what MS, Sony and Nintendo disclose for shipments and their timeframe before considering this much further.
I think MS has a damn good chance of being number 1, I think Sony has a chance of being number 1 (for worldwide unit sales) but I think there's too much noise in the signal right now to be sure.
One thing I am feeling right now is it was close!
EDIT: to quote Kow from another thread which I think nicely sums it up:
"To be honest this thread along with every other sales thread is, at this point.... er.... pointless until we see all of the shipment data, even then it might end in a stale mate."
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
