Its becoming more evident, at least to me, that MS overshipped this quarter. I have a particular feeling that multiple retailers wanted to return stock on the 360 they ordered but MS compensated by covering the cost of the gift card promotion which for most retailers average between 50-100 dollars. Even with the big black Friday and all the promotions afterwards (for the 360, both the Wii $99 deal and the $199 PS3 was for one weekend only) that still wasn't enough to move consoles out the door. Future shipment order will be the tale tale.
Those looking for a European mircle, i direct you to the massive warning that Tesco (UK largest retailer, 3rd largest in the world) gave. You wont find the sales there.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/tesco-disappointed-with-u-k-sales-decline.html