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ethomaz on 12 January 2012
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kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:
My thoughts using the future shipped data...

66.1m -> 1.6m on shelves (maybe little undertracked... 200-300k)
66.5m -> 2.0m on shelves (undertracked... 500-700k)
66.9m -> 2.4m on shelves (heavily undertracked... 1m)

I can't see less than 1 million on shelves for 360 this time of the year... the history sales shows otherwise... I guess there are 1.1-1.3 million 360 on shelves by the end of the year.

 

Really?  You are looking at the wrong history.  Recent history says otherwise.

Far too simplistic in your approach to looking at this.

The 360 is now more sesaonal due to kinect and last year is the only barometer we have since Kinect.

Last year at this time it had 420k on shelves and it hasnt had more than 1m on shelves since (Dec 10, 420k, March 11 700k, Sept 11 830k). Also there were only 830k on shelves at the end of September '11 and there were 1.16m on shelves in Sept 2010.

So less supply going into the holiday this time and bigger sales during the holiday period.

I'd say everything points to 1m being the absolute maximum on shelves at end of Dec.  Somewhere less than 1m is the most likely.

If its 66m shipped then it should be 65m sold at the end of Dec minimum.... 66.5 million shipped then 65.5m sold minimum.  etc.etc.

 

 

The only time 360 had less than 1.6 million on shelves was last year when MS had problems to supply the channel... this year nothing like happened.