| TheSource said: Has anyone ever considered that Wii could shrink the world videogame market even as it dominates it? This may sound crazy, but the industry has seen tremendous growth over the last 20 years, and I think disruptive technology needs to be watched. I don't think what I'm about to write will happen, but I don't think it is completely out there either. Here are the steps that bring about Wii domination in a smaller videogame industry. 1) Wii hardware sells very well for at least 18 months worldwide 2) Developers need to make as much as money as possible and flock to the fastest growing/biggest userbase. 3) Wii software sales profits become equal or greater to 360 and/or PS3 sales once Wii passes/ gets even with 360 worldwide. 3) 85-90% of Wii games from 3rd parties focus on motion-sensing control schemes, because they think only those games have a chance to compete with Nintendo's titles. 4) With the vast majority of 3rd party exclusives going to Wii, a number of gamers who bought GC/Xbox/PS2 do not upgrade because they want 3rd party traditional games, but dislike most motion control games. 5) Nintendo keeps 2/3 of GC users, brings in 40 million new gamers, and steals 30 million casual gamers from the 150-160 million gamers it did not have last generation. Sony and Microsoft (combined) convince 40-60 million users to upgrade from last gen, and add in 10-15 million new users each. 6) Worldwide totals end up like this: Wii 85 million, 360 50 million, PS3 35 million. That is alot of new gamers, however, I think Wii domination may create 30 million+ lapsed gamers for those who dislike the direction gaming is heading. For comparison, last generation (PS2, GC, Xbox) was 170 million - meaning that the market shrunk considering population growth. In theory, a future disruptive device could pick up the lapsed gamers Wii may create. |
I don't find your scenario compelling. Why would the PS2/xbox users NOT upgrade to PS3/360 if they don't enjoy motion control? Perhaps the PS3 will not be considered because of the sticker price. But the 360's price is relatively reasonable and it's getting pretty much the range of games that PS2 had (except in Japan).
You're assuming that 80% of the people don't enjoy casual games (Wii "stealing" only 30M of 150-160M. I'm not even going to go into how there aren't 150-160M ps2/xbox players). I would posit that 80% do and only 20% are "hardcore" (the very term is defined by being a elite minority).
wrt 2/3 of the GC players. That is just a weak assumption. How many people bought GC for the control scheme (moderately similar to ps2/xbox)? They bought it for the Nintendo franchises. I'd dare say that GC players are hardcore Nintendo loyalists and they'd buy it just for the next gen of their fave franchises. I'd expect you lose 10% who "outgrow" Nintendo franchises. So I'd see Wii getting 90+% of GC
So, redoing your numbers. We have 120M + 35M (rounding down in both cases) for 155M. But honestly, large number of those were overlaps and repurchasers of last gen (1st gen PS2 does NOT last 7 years with any significant usage). I'd put the real number at 110M (including Wii repurchasers). I'd dare say that at least 1/3 of PS2/xbox players would go for 360 or ps3 putting that number at ~50M (pessimistically).
So, by your calculation style, it would 155M prev gen wii buyers +40M new wii buyers +50M ps3/360 buyers = 245M > ~200M total prev gen
Tho in reality, I'd expect to at least see total sales of 110M + 40M + 50M = 200M with more roughly the same number of consoles sold but more players overall, roughly corresponding to pop growth. Also it's 200M/6yrs vs 200M/7+yrs.
In short, I'd expect a net growth of gamers, not a net decline
