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Personally i think saying there are 1.6m on shelves is probably asking a lot. Especially when you consider that would be nearly double last years numbers.

Also not sure if it has been mentioned but according to IGN http://uk.xbox360.ign.com/articles/121/1216177p1.html
Microsoft told them to clarify

"Xbox 360 has sold more than 66 million consoles" and that "Kinect has sold more than 18 million sensors around the world."

So i think it is most likely under-tracked.