kowenicki said:
Greece is fine, Ireland is fine, Portugal probably too... but Spain would be a major problem, too much for French banks in particular to stomach. Of course Greece plus Ireland plus Portugal is a different matter.
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Yeah, I agree that the major issue would be with Spain going down. But from the look of things, it seems that at least Ireland is stabilizing and Portugal's on a good route for it too, we've already managed to go down to a 4,6% deficit the last year (when the projected deficit by the financial institutions was 5,5%) and our interest rates are lowering by a large amount. 2012 is going to be the real trial by fire for Portugal because if we manage to get to below 3% deficit, our interest rates will go back to pre-2009 levels and our market rating will increase again.
However, there seems to be no solution in sight for the greek problem, even after all the bailouts they've had and this second package doesn't seem to change much. This "incrustrated" weapons deal with the bailout packages might sting a bit (or a little, depending on how much is it) on the recovering economies, but Ireland went through it too and managed to recover, so there must be something terribly wrong over at the greek side for the continuous failures to kick-start their recovery of the economy.
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