| naznatips said: Your "my family said this so its true" evidence is pretty ridiculous. I agree with you to some extent that the casual market is less likely to buy a dedicated handheld than they used to be, but you're also clearly wrong that they've moved on. The system is shattering handheld first year sales records, and shattered all first year records for gaming in Japan. Super Mario 3D Land doesn't break 5 million units in under two months without massive casual assistance, and Mario Kart 7 doesn't break 4.5 million in less than one month without massive casual assistance. Even Nintendogs, the most casual of all, is trucking along with sales similar to its predecessors in rate of sale, over 2 million and steadily continuing forward. You've moved on from 3DS, and apparently so has your family. That's great, but your "market analysis" based on anecdotes is conjecture which is not supported by the evidence. My own prediction is that yes, the dedicated handheld market has shrunk to some extent, and the 3DS will likely only be a 100 million lifetime seller, but your "version" of how things are happening is full of absolute statements which you cannot support with data. PS: Way too early to call the fate of Vita. Western sales are a total mystery due to the promise of a real Call of Duty on a handheld, and Monster Hunter or a similar breakout hit (remember it was practically unknown when the first game hit PSP) could do a lot for the platform in Japan. That said, it's certainly in trouble at the moment. |
I'm pretty sure I mentioned that I thought the 3DS would do okay for itself in the long run. "Shattering handheld records" isn't exactly impressive and is akin to being awarded a silver medal at the Special Olympics. What's it going against? The DS had entirely mediocre sales until the Lite released and it missed the first holiday season in Europe and Australia due to its staggered launch. The market was much smaller in the Game Boy era, which last launched over a decade ago. The PSP spent most of its first year wandering around like a crazy homeless person. And these "records" came after Nintendo had to lop a whopping $80 off the damned thing just three months after launch. Like I said, I think the 3DS will be okay but Nintendo can't be thrilled about how things have shaken out for the device thus far. I doubt they forcast slicing $80 off every device just to get the things moving off store shelves when they plotted out the lifecycle of the unit.
You can go ahead and bash my "market analysis" but I'm looking forward, not backward. The 3DS has been propped up by a massively premature price cut and when a handheld typically gets swept by the casual market (12-36 months after launch, if at all), I don't see the 3DS catching a sales wave anywhere near the level of the DS, especially since Nintendo has already used their "price cut boost" card and won't be able to prop up the device with a nice price cut after the typical 12-18 months.
You may think it's too early to call the fate of the Vita but from my perspective, that thing looked stillborn the moment it was announced as the NGP. It's too expensive, the games are going to be too expensive to develop compared to potential ROI, and there are other devices out there that do more and play games well enough (iOS, Android) or devices that offer a truly different experience for dedicated gamers (3DS). I don't see people giving a shit about the device and unless Sony starts forking out cash to developers (which they are hardly in a position to do at this point), I don't see third parties doing much with the device outside of porting whatever 360/PS3 game they think they can get running on the thing.
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