| rocketpig said: Jesus Christ. I never said anyone was taking an Android over a 3DS for GAMING. In fact, I kind of said the opposite. My point is that they are overlap devices. There are people out there (like me, all of my friends, my nieces) who own MULTIPLE Android/iOS devices. We can afford the 3DS but we have no interest in buying one because we already own "good enough" mobile gaming devices. They're not in direct competition with each other; anyone who says so isn't paying attention. But that doesn't mean they don't share consumer space. Overall, I think the 3DS will do moderately well for itself. For a handheld gaming device to succeed, it needs to differentiate itself from the tablet/phone market. The 3DS does a decent job of that. Do I think it will be as successful as the DS? No, I think there's about a zero percent chance of that happening. The casual market that made the DS so massively popular has moved on to other devices. Still, that doesn't mean Nintendo can't make it out of this generation with a tidy profit. But even if they do, that doesn't mean the market is stable or expanding because it's not. On the other hand, I think the Android/iOS market is going to absolutely fucking kill the Vita. It's too expensive (and unlike Nintendo, I doubt Sony has the wiggle room for a price drop) and it crosses over with Android/iOS far more than the 3DS. Sony (again) couldn't have managed the design/launch of a handheld device much worse than they have twice in a row now. |
Your "my family said this so its true" evidence is pretty ridiculous. I agree with you to some extent that the casual market is less likely to buy a dedicated handheld than they used to be, but you're also clearly wrong that they've moved on. The system is shattering handheld first year sales records, and shattered all first year records for gaming in Japan. Super Mario 3D Land doesn't break 5 million units in under two months without massive casual assistance, and Mario Kart 7 doesn't break 4.5 million in less than one month without massive casual assistance. Even Nintendogs, the most casual of all, is trucking along with sales similar to its predecessors in rate of sale, over 2 million and steadily continuing forward.
You've moved on from 3DS, and apparently so has your family. That's great, but your "market analysis" based on anecdotes is conjecture which is not supported by the evidence. My own prediction is that yes, the dedicated handheld market has shrunk to some extent, and the 3DS will likely only be a 100 million lifetime seller, but your "version" of how things are happening is full of absolute statements which you cannot support with data.
PS: Way too early to call the fate of Vita. Western sales are a total mystery due to the promise of a real Call of Duty on a handheld, and Monster Hunter or a similar breakout hit (remember it was practically unknown when the first game hit PSP) could do a lot for the platform in Japan. That said, it's certainly in trouble at the moment.
