I Believe PS3 Will Be #1 Selling Console In 2011 What Do You Believe In?

[postofficebuddy]

thismeintiel said:

Agree with this.  Plus, I still think there may be a few adjustments made that will have a higher gap for the PS3 than just the 300K.  But, we'll see about that in a few weeks.  Here's my reasoning, regardless of adjustments:

1. For next year, I think both the 360 and the PS3 will see a price cut.  I think that's one reason why Sony only dropped by $50, instead of $100.  It gives them more time to not only sell at a higher profit, but also to drop manufactoring costs down so they can sell at a similar profit, even if they drop it by another $50.  So having the PS3 available for $199 for the first time (except 2011's Black Friday) is going to do wonders for the system. 

2. This year showed us that while Kinect is still popular during the holidays, its popularity mostly comes from the US and UK.  Everywhere else, it's pretty much dead.  Also, it will most likely boost the 360 less than it did last year during the 10 months leading up to the holiday season.  And even during the holidays, with it being in its 3rd year on the market, it will probably boost sales less the first 2 holiday seasons.

3. The 360 will drop its 250GB SKU to $199, but I don't see this giving it as big a boost as the PS3's cut.  A $199 360 has been around since '08.  Of course, the difference back then between models was pretty drastic, where as now the SKUs are almost identical except for the larger HDD.  Also, with this cut, I don't see stores giving out ~$100 giftcards for nearly 2 months next holiday season.  It will probably see the same ~$20-$50 giftcards the PS3 and Wii (and Wii U) will see for 3-4 weeks.  Not sure if MS will due another Back To School 360 giveaway, too.

Congrats on your successful prediction BHR. Sorry I didn't bump this myself but my computer crashed. In regards to your other prediction, I have to agree with Thismeintiel here. Another PS3 price cut is quite likely with them moving to the 22nm manufacturing process next year. And there's something everyone seems to be overlooking in regards to 360 sales. Look at DS back in mid 2010, it received a price drop back then as well but it had almost no effect, and it was still recieving pretty significant support back then as well. Even with the price cut sales declined quite heavily due to saturation. The situation will be similar for the 360 next year in the USA, and probably to a lesser extent in the UK. Admitedely 360 isn't at the same install base in the USA that the DS was at in mid-2010 but handhelds in general are more likely to have multiple units sold within a single household compared to home consoles, so as far as household install base is concerned it's likely closing in on it.