I said the NGP was going to tank when it was announced. By the time they had dubbed it "Vita", the situation had grown even more dire. The handheld market just isn't what it used to be; the 3DS proved that with its launch and subsequent price drop. There is too much market clutter from well-rounded multi-touch convergence devices for a $250 handheld gaming device with $40 games to survive in the long run. If Nintendo struggles out of the gate, it pretty much means disaster for anyone else in the market. Why on earth would I buy a Vita when I can get a Kindle Fire for $50 less or a Xoom for about $150 more? Why on earth would I want a mobile gaming device in the first place? I carry a $200 (subsidized) phone with me everywhere. I'm not saying all handhelds are going to die. But handhelds like the Vita, well, they're going to die. There is no place in the market for a device that costs that much to buy and use when the market has been saturated with cross-over devices for the past five years. Gaming-specific handhelds have to bring something unique to the table or people will be plenty happy to continue using their iOS and Android devices to play games on the go.
The thing is that Sony should have seen this coming a mile away. They blundered through the PSP generation and seem to have learned nothing. They have their hand in almost every aspect of consumer electronics. Their complete indifference to market trends shows just how badly run the company continues to be. I could see the writing on the wall. My friends could see the writing on the wall. Why couldn't Sony?
If a handheld like Vita can't make it in Japan (and it looks like it can't without additional subsidization from Sony and the last thing they need is to sell another device at a loss), it's going to utterly flop in the west.
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