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freebs2 on 05 January 2012
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If I have to say how much new consoles are doomed, on a scale from 0 to 10, I'd say.
-PsVita 7/10
Numbers in japan shows, this console is not healty. I think Nintendo with Mario, Kart, Monster Hunter and Pokemon on the same console (as well as some other important games like Resident Evil and Kingdom Hearts) has an huge advantage in japan, it will be hard for Sony to catch up.
On the western side, may be too soon to tell but I also see a problem: I don't understand what is the target of PSV. It's too expansive and not enough portable for kids and those who want a pick-up and play experience on the go. Right now gadget/tech geeks are too busy with their apples and androids. The X360/Ps3 owner has no need to buy another console when he can already play (better) COD, Bioshock and Uncharted. So who is left? I can only thing of Sony loyal fanbase. I don't know if they are enough to sustain a console.
-WiiU 5/10
There will be hard times for Nintendo next-gen. It will be difficult for them to convince casuals it's worth to buy expansive new hardware to play Wiisports and Mario kart in HD. On the other hand X360/Ps3 users are already happy with their own consoles and the chronic lack of 3rd party support is not a good publicity either. In the best case scenario, so if it's cheap and yet powerful enough to get enough multiplatform titles, WiiU will be able to carve out its own space, among Nintendo loyals and current Wii users.
-Ps4 3/10
Sony has made a mess with ps3 launch, but now the wounds are healed and the ps3 is healthy: games are selling well enough and, most importantly, users are happy. Thanks to customer satisfaction and the power of PS brand, the Ps4 can be easily be succesfull, unsless they repeat the same past mistakes (599$).
The only thing that bothers me is the financial stability of the company as a whole. They probably can't afford to undersell their consoles as much as they did in the past, this will give Microsoft some advantage.
Anyway, as long as Sony lives, the PS brand will live.
-3DS 3/10
Despite the slow start, and the price cut 3DS has picked up. If Nintendo continues to release the games people want to play there's not much to worry about. 3rd party support is good, at least in japan.
Smartphones are a threat but not a big one right now, as almost any gamer agrees.
-X720 1/10
Microsoft has nothing to worry about, they can go red and undersell as long as they have Windows. The XB brand is more popular than ever, an still growing. Next-gen, if they want, they have the opportuinity to enstablish an integrated virtual enviroment with Windows8/Xbox Live devices. Kinect is also an huge help. Plus, they don't have any kind of exchage rate problems. Imo they have the best cards to win next-gen console war.

That said, I don't think anyone is going to leave the market soon.