| leo-j said: PS3 has been very slowly stealing market share from the 360 each week that goes on, now with the recent rumer of the ps3 to be priced at $299.99, I believe there is a chance that the ps3 will make 30% market share before year's end. |
I figured i'd do some math to see what is neccessary for the PS3 to get 30% marketshare.
Right now with just others data in for this week we have:
The Wii at 20.03 (43.7%)
The 360 at 16.51 (36.0%)
The PS3 at 9.29 (20.3%)
Now let's look at the most unlikely yet best case scenario for the PS3. The Wii and the 360 sell 0 units from here on out and remain at a combined total of 36.54 million. For 36.54 million to be 70% of the market the entire market would have to comprise of 52.2 million meaning the PS3 would have to get to 15.66 million WW. That's only selling 6.37 million more than what they have right now. Seems easy enough to accomplish this year right?
Well unfortunately the best case scenario (wii and 360 selling 0 units) is not going to happen. Forgive me for throwing in an outlandish John Lucas style prediction here but I'm feeling a little bold and predict that both the 360 and the Wii will continue to sell positive units in 08. Yes crazy I know! If we conservatively estimate that the 360 sells 5 million this year and the Wii only sells 10 million or some such combination where they sell 15 million, both significant drops by the way since they sold 8 and 16 million last year, then we end up at Wii and 360 market share at 51.54 million. At that point for the PS3 to get 30% marketshare it would need to get to 22.08 million which is still only a little over 12.8 million units for 08 alone. A definite improvement compared to their 7.5 million last year but doable and some seem to predict it will happen.
Basically it boils down to whether or not you think such a drastic change in sales can happen. However it seems quite unlikely to me at least that the PS3 would go from last to just selling 2 million less than the combined sales of 360 + Wii in one year so your best bet for 30% market share isn't till some time later in 2009.
