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thismeintiel on 09 December 2011
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Millenium said:

With 4 weeks of data left to go, the 360 needs to do (on average) ~203K more per week.

Seeing how I expect the 360 to outsell the PS3 by 300-400K for the weeks ending 17th & 24th, I'm pretty damn confident that the 360 will take it.

Again, the PS3 is almost 100% guaranteed to outsell the 360 by AT LEAST 80K for the last week of data.  There will be a sharp decrease in 360 sales after Christmas in the US, as well as Japan holiday boosts for the PS3 continuing into the next year.  This has happened the last 2 years, as well as in '07, and it will happen again this year.  In other words, you need to estimate like there is only 3 weeks worth of data for the 360 to catch up, not 4.  Also, with NPD numbers in, it looks like the PS3 was undertracked in the US for the month of Nov by ~160K.  So, there will be further adjustments next week in the PS3's favor.

I think what some fail to acknowledge is how big the PS3 is outside of the US and UK.  The PS3 is going to be seeing much larger boosts in EMEAA and Japan compared to the 360, which is going to decrease the gap the 360 (even with incredible US sales) has over it on a weekly base to ~100K-200K.