Interesting article. Re Nintendo I think he was more implying its a given now its going to do well (although he did mess about about the SW sales) and focusing on PS3/360. To be honest I tend to make the assuption - for me right now its the final 360 and PS3 performance that's still up in the air, the Wii seems assured barring something left field.
As for the rest, I think it does apply well outside US and I do expect PS3 to really move up on (and ahead of) 360 in a lot of territories outside of US (although I think UK and OZ will be tough competes).
Everyone I know 35+ (I'm 40 + BTW ) in UK is getting an HD TV and every one of them is now going to get a PS3 to play DVDs, upscale DVDs and maybe try out a couple of BR disks.
Most will also get a 360 but it will be in their teenage sons room (true!). Some are making the poor kids save up and buy the 360 becuase they understand they fail a lot and refuse to buy them unless their kids at least contribute.
In US I don't know the market well enough to say how fast BR will make a difference. The real key is how fast any attempt is made to force a transition - i.e. pull DVD players and leave BR as only option (note this does not mean pull DVD format, but move people onto BR player that also plays DVDs). This will happen at some point I'm sure - in much the same way SD TVs are being pulled out and you have to buy an HD TV (particularly for the big name brands).
As for dual players - I can only imagine they will die quickly once HD DVD is officially dead - there simply won't be enough of a market for them to be anything other than niche if the studios do drop HD DVD entirely I would think.
Right now though I think PS3 can only really outperform 360 in Japan and 'Others' while slowly growing a base in US.
If it does start to really close gap in US I would expect the reason would be 360 hitting a glass ceiling of hardore users and losing momentum itself rather than anything Sony do. Not sure what the anticipated base for 360 is in US - I would imagine its shrinking as recent sales seem to indicate Wii is going to eat up the casual market in US way ahead of MS, leaving a smaller hardcore market for their console.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
