pachoo5 said:
I took the sales increase / decrease each week after black friday for each console from last year and applied them to the black friday sales for the Wii / 360 / PS3 this year to extrapolate sales through 12/31/11. Here is what the year end total for each console ends up being (globally):
Wii: 96,420,562
360: 65,440,090
PS3: 60,581,794
That would mean the 2011 sales for each console would be:
Wii: 13,950,375
360: 15,128,867
PS3: 14,320,514
360 would have outsold PS3 in 2011 by 808,353.
The five weeks after black friday last year sold 5.09 times as many units as the week of Black Friday for the three consoles combined. If we assume the same and assume the same relative sales gap as we saw Black Friday (in which the 360 outsold the PS3 by 411,587), we would project the 360 sales gap over PS3 in the next five weeks to be 5.09 x 411,587 = 2,095,964. The 5.09 is based on the combined sales of the Wii / 360 / PS3. If we take the individual sales trends for each console and apply them to each consoles totals of Black Friday this year, the sales gap for 360 would increase over PS3 during the next 5 weeks by 1,800,625, which is the stat that I thiink the sales will be closer to (and the stat I am using to get the figures above).
The two weeks before Christmas each actually sell more units than Black Friday. The two weeks prior to that sell almost as many units as Black Friday (about 80%). Considering those statistics, 360 has a VERY good chance of passing PS3 for 2011 by year end if the relative sales gap we saw between the two during Black Friday remains in place. The 360 is less than a million behind now and only needs about 2.5 times the gap it had on PS3 during Black Friday to overtake the PS3 sales. I think 360 will beat PS3 in 2011 sales rather handily when all is said and done.
The extrapolation of sales actually projects the 360 to take over the 2011 sales lead before the week of Christmas (after the week ending 12/17/11).
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I think its kinda hard for the 360 to keep outselling the PS3 by 400k units till Christmas every week. The 360 was basicaly beeing given for free on Black Friday, wich was not realy just a Friday, so numbers were much higher tham usual and will probably reduce sales on upcoming weeks since ppl whod normaly get theyre Christmas things on those weeks got it on Black Friday.
Also youre basing yourself on the projection that Sony wont reach its 15 million units sold this year quota, wich Sony keeps saying theyre on track to reach, so Id say your extrapolations are a little bit "extrapolated".
Lets see what the post Black Friday week numbers are and if youre right Ill come here and give you props but I dont think you will be.
Essay Pro