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If there is anything that this generation has taught us, it is that brand allegiance doesn't extend nearly so deep for the majority of gamers. Sony thought customer loyalty could carry them through the first few years of this gen. They shot themselves in the foot at the beginning of the race with absurd pricing and a mediocre opening debut.

If anyone said 6 years ago that the PS3 would be in third place near the twilight years of this console gen, they would probably be locked up in the loony bin.

So yes, Microsoft could easily lose NA next gen, a dumb move or two and everything could collapse just like that.