Wow my prediction looks more and more likely, can't wait to see it come true next year.
As for the arguments against the Next Box coming out next year.
Software won't be ready , Sorry development of software began in 2008 if the console launches next winter at worst we will have three or so first party titles, not crappy ones either they have been in development for a long time. Third parties are said to have had early kits as early as Q1 this year and we have no idea how much earlier they actually had the kits. Final kits coming this winter gives developers almost an entire year to get their games upgraded to the new hardware. Those saying Nintendo has had longer, well final kits to my knowledge still aren't in developer hands. Nintendo continues to upgrade the kits on a monthly basis the controller is still not completely finalized and the hardware still is in the works. There is no way to know what the third parties have in store till next E3. Plus from leaks and such all the evidence points to Microsoft starting software development before Nintendo.
Their is too many strong titles coming next year I find it funny anyone is going to use a third party title as a reason for no next generation system. Firstly I haven't heard the major publishers say whether or not their games will be coming to the next generation systems. Only that most of them will be available on current ones. Those saying we know of all the WiiU games coming, oh really? Seriously you think we actually know squat? Nintendo never showed a single first party title and the third party titles shown weren't WiiU versions but PS3 versions. Only a few select titles were announced but we know way more studios and publishers have kits. Also with CoD being annual and many of the other announced titles being like wise when is the Next-Xbox supposed to launch? They can't wait for a year free of great software or they will find themselves left out while Nintendo makes all the sales.
360 is still going strong, don't cut its thunder Sorry but PSOne was still selling strong when PS2 launched and PS2 despite being desperatly inferior power wise was still selling strong when PS3 launched. NES was still going pretty good when Nintendo announced SNES. The goal isn't to run your console into the ground before releasing another one, you want a smooth transition. You want your last system to sell for at least a year or two into the life of your next system to maintain profitability as well as brand stability. Look at the television industry, quit while your ahead. So many shows are amazing but the choice is made after 7-9 seasons to cancel the show despite it doing well. Why because the company doesn't want to drive it into the ground.
2012 is too early, Sony won't be a threat yet and Nintendo won't sell enough to be a threat in 2013 Well Sony leaks say their console will come during the winter of 2012. Official Sony statements suggest their console will not be as late as it was with PS3. Sony is also reported to have begun developing software for their PS4. Yes they may not be ready for winter 2012 but they certainly aren't waiting till 2014 as some suggest. As for Nintendo not selling a lot, well lets look at how many units the PS2 sold between 1999 and 2001. By the time Xbox and GameCube were on the market Sony had shipped 20 million units and sold more then half of those (Sorry can't remember how to access the yearly sales data on VGChartz anymore). Microsoft sold millions of units in its first year as well not nearly as well as Sony but still good. by the time Xbox and GameCube turned one Sony had shipped 40 million units! Nintendo Wii and DS were two of the fastest selling systems in history and they had competition from two consoles which out gunned it severely in the graphic power department. What could Nintendo do with a year head start? Also keep in mind while 3DS's launch was a disaster compared to what Nintendo had expected after the price cut the 3DS is already out pacing the DS which is one of the fastest selling systems of all time. There is no telling what Nintendo could do if they were given a year with no competitor.
Half a year is not early enough to announce a new platform Sorry but Microsoft hasn't given more then a years advance on their hardware lately. I mean the 360 was announced within a year of release and in fact Microsoft launched the Slim the day of it being announced showing they have no problem in launching new hardware with little to no notice. Whether they announce at CES is unclear but if it is announced by or during E3 2012 a launch that winter is more then possible. Another thing suggesting it could be announced at CES is the fact that the original Xbox debut at GDC 2000 and the 360 on MTV. There is no reason to believe Microsoft will unveil their console at E3 so CES is actually possible as are other conventions or ways to announce.
I could go on and on about the many reasons Next box is likely coming next winter or within a few months of it. Including Microsoft's said policy made by Peter Moore back when 360 was coming that Microsoft wanted to launch first in the future. Microsoft also had talked about a four year console cycle when 360 was coming they defended that decision and said a four year life cycle was fine. So if Microsoft had no problems with a four year life cycle they would have the system ready awhile in advance. It actually fits perfectly with what we know Microsoft began hiring next generation software developers in 2008. That was 3 years into the 360's life which would match perfectly with Microsoft's readiness to launch in four year cycles, the fact Microsoft held off just shows they were waiting for competition and trying to make back their losses.
There is no logical reason Next-Box can't launch in 2012.
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
